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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.